CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2026-05-10T13:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2026-05-10T13:48ZDONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/46088/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the northeast as a partial halo seen in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, GOES CCOR-1, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an M5.7 flare and eruption from Active Region 14436 (centered near N21E65) starting around 2026-05-10T13:30Z as seen in SDO AIA 131/171/193/304, GOES SUVI 131/171/195/284/304 and STEREO A EUVI 195/304 imagery. A wide opening of field lines is observed over the northeast limb in SDO AIA 171/193, GOES SUVI 171/195/284, and STEREO A EUVI 195 imagery with an EUV wave best seen in SDO AIA 193/211 and GOES SUVI 284 to the west towards a coronal hole. Additionally, post eruptive arcades begin to form in SDO AIA 171/193 and GOES SUVI 171/195 imagery starting around 2026-05-10T14:30Z. An arrival comes near 2026-05-13T07:22Z with relatively rapid magnetic field enhancement from 8nT to 11nT with increases in solar wind speed from 325 km/s to 390 km/s with secondary magnetic field enhancement to 14 nT after 2026-05-13T11:10Z with another increase rapid increase in velocity.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-05-13T07:22Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-05-13T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:
2 CME fit: Lat: 04S Long 56E Vel: 1375km/s 1/2 angle: 41 deg 21.5Rs: 2026-05-10T16:18Z Lat: 37N Long 73E Vel: 1271km/s 1/2 angle: 43 deg 21.5Rs: 2026-05-10T16:22ZLead Time: 54.50 hour(s)
Difference: 1.37 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2026-05-11T00:52Z
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